First, we are going to talk about how and why the market can crash during a promo, as most traders tend to overlook the idea behind this and make assumptions about people’s knowledge on the market.
Whenever we have a promo, we see a few things take place. Sometimes we see cheap SBCs that reward high value packs, sometimes we see repeatable SBCs for the chance to pack certain sets of players. Other times we will receive promo packs and the community wants to open them up, and they all have unique changes to the market.
As a whole, these are the main possibilities when it comes to a new promo.
If you didn’t already know, the marker rises and falls depending on how many coins are held by users in FIFA:
When players have lots of coins, they have much more buying power. This means that players are able to purchase more cards, as well as high end cards. When this happens, players are taking away the available supply on the market, away from everyone else, and so less supply and lots of people wanting to buy, pushes prices up (low supply, high demand). And so the more coins people hold, the higher prices become.
When players don’t have many coins, it would make sense for the opposite to occur, where prices around the market are low, which is true. When coins are low, it becomes difficult to purchase everything that you would like to purchase, due to a lack of funds, and so players are forced to sell their players back onto the market and increase the supply available of them, however other players that don’t own many coins, will struggle to purchase a card if it’s expensive and so will wait until it drops in value or they simply just won’t be able to afford to buy cards on the market at all (high supply, low demand) and so the prices around the market drop in value.
These two key points are heavily overlooked when trying to explain changes in the market and what is truly behind a crash in prices or a rise in the market, but are not the exclusive reasons for a players price changing.
So what happens when we get regular promo packs?
When we get regular promo packs, players will spend FIFA points on the game opening packs. This does two things, it adds more supply to the market of high end cards and lots of supply of low end cards, however what you will find is that a large majority of players will either store cards to the club, and so never make their way onto the market, or become discarded and turned into coin value.
Whilst there is supply of high end cards, what you will also find is that players will either use these cards and so it will never make its way onto the market or by the time that a player has opened enough packs to eventually pack a high end player, the coins they have got are enough to purchase other high end cards straight back off of the market.
So essentially, promo packs will introduce lots of coins into the market and but will do very little in terms of supplying the market with new cards (in comparison to how many people are buying)
Like previously discussed, more coins means that the market rises.
What happens when we get cheap SBCs with high rewards?
Whenever we receive these types of SBCs, we are purchasing packs using players instead of coins, and so usually spending much less on a pack than what the pack is valued at. Imagine everyone could buy a 50k pack for 0 coins, it would have the same effect as people buying a 50k pack with FIFA points, and so for the exact same reason, prices on the market rise as a result of these SBCs, although usually they are still changing the market by very insignificant amounts that you would never really notice the impact.
What happens when we see repeatable SBCs?
In this case, the cost to reward will always be negative. If an SBC can be completed to earn coins, people will keep completing it until the requirements to complete it become so dried up and expensive, that the SBC is no longer profitable and so the cost to reward becomes negative.
Players will continue to complete SBCs with a negative reward because there is a small chance that they will win a large reward. It’s the same as gambling and the casino (in this case EA) always win and so coins are taken off of the market with this negative reward, which brings the general value of the market down once again.
This brings us to coin discount packs. You may have seen a tweet earlier today where I analyse the value of packs and their cost to reward ratio. Take a look here:
As you can see, everything is negative. And as already noted, taking coins off of the market will cause players on the market to drop further and further in value.
I also made a tweet, talking about the changes in value of 83-89 Rated players, shown here:
What we can take from this is that the market is already very cheap all around, and many players have already began to invest in cards now that they’re cheap.
So the question that everyone would like to know the answer to:
What is the gameplay?
We will be waiting for Coin Discount Packs to drop, because despite the market already being low, we have only had 3 lightening rounds out of 12.
When Coin Discount Packs Drop, Players will have less coins than ever and the SBC fodder side of the market will drop to the cheapest it has been in a very long time.
We will initially be abusing the mass opening of lightening rounds:
To do this, we will start by bidding on players at these times, Today, Tomorrow and the next day too (02/03, 03/03 and 04/03):
- 19:05 – 19:15
- 20:05 – 20:15
- 21:05 – 20:15
At these times, the market will be beyond flooded with cards on the market that people won’t have the coins to purchase. There are so many players you can pick up and so here is a large list of players to bid on…
Just ensure that the players you choose are in packs currently. The lower rated that they are, the easier they will be to win.
When it comes to a specific price point to buy at, you will be winning some of these cards for 2,000 coins or you may win then for 10,000 coins, you’re simply looking to pick them up for a minimum of a few thousands coins profit on each card. We will do this by mass bidding.
One of the better selection of players will be the 83s that are high Chemistry, as they will be very close to discard value when winning them:
They will reward you with the least profit per card but will be much easier to win huge amounts of when bidding on those times each day.
When do I sell them?
You can sell them a few hours after the lightening rounds are over for some nice coins now, or alternatively hold past this promo, as they will rise as they are purchased more and more and players regain their coin totals through other methods of gaining coins, such as Div Rivals Rewards and Weekend League Rewards.
What if I don’t want to bid on players and just want to buy?
Then you will be in a very similar boat to me. What you will find is that prices are already allow and anytime between 18:30 and 21:30 will be the prime times to buy your investments.
What we’re looking at here depends on your budget. If you’re on a high budget, I highly suggest picking up 85/86 Rated NIF Gold players, or alternatively 84-85 Rated TOTWs.
These are some of my personal pickups il be making too, as this can easily be much more specific when choosing players:
84 TOTW IZZO
Providing great chemistry in SBC solutions and at the cheap price of 20k on XB1, at this price and under you cannot go wrong, especially now that Icon SBCs won’t expire, meaning a constant growing demand for 84 Rated TOTWs. With PS4, TOTW prices are slightly higher, so aim for the 21k mark to get this card at a much more desirable price point
84 TOTW Milik
There really aren’t many things to say about this card that are different from Izzo. I would be buying at 20k and under on XB1 and 21k and under on PS4, of course anything cheaper is always better!
84 TOTW Deulofeu
Im very interested in this card at 21k and 22k on XB1 and PS4 respectively. At first glance, it’s just another 84, but he actually has a lot more going for him…
Not only is he one of the cheapest available 84 TOTWs right now, but he also provides a Spanish link to LaLiga SBC fodder, making him much easier to get into squads that need chemistry. What is even better than that however is that he is an EPL TOTW, and if you have already forgotten, EPLs February POTM is set to drop in under 1 week (Friday 8th March) and he won’t be cheap, but he will be very desirable!
If that wasn’t enough, he is also very usable in game and will have extra demand because of this!
85 TOTW Subasic/Castillejo
Whilst they are the cheapest 85 rated TOTWs right now, I don’t think they hold as much potential as people think. Whilst they’re very cheap for their rating, il be picking up only a few, due to the lack of requirements for these cards. That isn’t to say that I won’t be buying some, but certainly won’t be going all in on these investments, as I believe many other options are much more profitable.
When it comes to investing in NIF Golds however, what I would like to be doing is cross investing, ready for POTM Aguero
Il be doing this by purchasing higher rated players for many reasons but one of these will be for POTM Aguero:
A few of the more favourable choices are the cheapest for each Rating, from the EPL.
The players Im looking into picking up are any of the 86s at 17k and under, and then both Alison and Fernandinho’s 87 Rated cards.
What about a cheaper budget?If you’re on a cheaper budget, or are willing to go into unassigned on a larger budget, I would be heavily looking into your high Chemistry players that are 83/84 rated, as well as the cheapest available IFs.
81 TOTW Pallois/Grifo
Pretty much close to discard, and we’ve seen countless uses for 81 Rated TOTWs. There is no chance they stay this close to discard once out of packs and are extremely safe pick ups, due to being so cheap.
Some of the best pickups for 83/84 Rated players will be CB cards as they rise very quickly and are very important for chemistry in SBCs
Lots of the 84 Rated ones look like amazing pickups
As well as some 83 Rated cards too:
As it stands, a lot of the market is very low right now and will begin rising after this promo once again.
We don’t have a set Sell time, but will be on the lookout for any SBCs that drop and cause our players to rise significantly