I have to post today’s guide early, because it all takes place tonight at 18:00 GMT, on the release of TOTW 11
The idea behind tonight’s flipping is that let’s say Player 1 has a value of 100,000 coins. Nobody knows that this is the case, but this is what he should be sitting at. His price range is 15k lowest and 250k highest, and here is what happens…
Usually on the release of a TOTW, players on the market are extremely rare as they have no more than a page of supply and for whatever reason, people are willing to pay the price to get these cards, rather than wait a few hours for prices to fall when supply increases. For this reason, everyone wants to list up players ASAP.
To get a sale so early a Player will undercut heavily. So let’s take out example player, on a usual TOTW, he would be sat at 200k whilst his supply is low due to only just being released. By listing at 150k and heavily undercutting, someone will buy this card due to how much lower it has been listed for, and then supply comes along and brings the player down to 100k, but because they sold early and undercut heavily, they got a sale 50k higher than that of what the player should be worth.
… in this week however, a lot of people will want to use this previous idea to make coins quick. By opening up TOTW packs, they will get themselves a TOTW card, check current prices and undercut. Now if everybody does the same thing at the same time, let’s look at our example Player. He’s sat at 250k as the first listing. Someone undercuts by 25k for a 225k listing in the hopes for a sale, but then so does another person. Now there are 2 available for 225k and they won’t sell because it’s no longer a good deal at that price. Someone sees this and lists for 200k to undercut these listings. Now 2 other people have done the same at 200k and it’s not rare to see them at this price. So someone undercuts to 175k and more people list at the same time. The pattern here is that everyone keeps undercutting and quickly.
From the buyers perspective, this is a player that is falling in price very quickly, meaning that they don’t want to buy a card for 200k if it’s going to drop to 125k in a couple of minutes.
This process continues on until the player is being listed under their value. Let’s say this card should be 100k, people will start listing as low as 40k to get their “quick sale” because they believe that if they wait longer then the card will continue to drop. This isn’t true.
What happens is that eventually, players stop opening TOTW packs they have saved up because they don’t have any more, or are them saving for a future TOTW.
Let’s go back to basic supply and demand. You have 5-10 minutes of hundreds of people opening packs and all containing TOTW cards and listing them. This is a huge supply with no demand in a very short time period. Once they stop opening packs, the supply is cut off almost fully, and players are looking to buy these card, and so prices can rise again.
If we go back to our 100k player being listed at 40k with no new supply, you can see why they would quickly rise in price. The overall supply of the card isn’t that much, but the supply in the small time period is huge.
How do we utilise this?
If you skipped to this part, please go back and read the entire guide, you will need to understand what’s going on here otherwise you will lose coins doing this.
What we need to do is judge the value of a player, for example SIF Lozano (85), to another card already available and get a rough idea for their value.
We can compare him to his previous IF
And take a guess that for an 85 Rated player, he may be worth 45k, especially with the recent Hernandez FlashBack card sitting in people’s clubs
This takes a lot of skill to pull off, but there will likely be overbuying When supply ends. Players see a card rising quickly and jump on board, buying more pushing a price up past what you would expect. So instead of being 45k, he may rise as high as 60-70k. That is why you need to get on the market and get buying
I recommend buying between 18:05-18:10 GMT and watch the prices fall and try to time buying at the lowest point. If you can pick up a card like this for 35k, 10 times and sell them for 70k 10 times, you could be making 350k in 30 minutes!
Try to spread investments over different players and remember that there is lots of risk in this, so if you’re not confident, don’t attempt it!